Before we start this prediction I want to give a big shout out to our sponsor, Pokerstars.net, and also a huge thanks to the Internet Chess Club. We couldn’t have done it without you, and thanks for being part of the strongest and most competitive USCL season in history.
Also I’d like to give a special mention to the losers in the Semifinals. Miami and New York both put together amazing playoff runs. New York brought in their young star, Nicolas Checa, who pulled off a huge win and almost sent New York to the Championship instead of Dallas. In the end GM Gata Kamsky’s Queen sacrifice wasn’t quite enough to breach the defenses of GM Conrad Holt, and Dallas advanced. Meanwhile Miami and St. Louis played one of the most exciting matches in League history, with the match coming down to the final game of the blitz playoff. Either one of these four teams would have been a worthy USCL Champion in 2014.
So here we are at the USCL Championship, and just as I predicted a long time ago, the St. Louis Arch Bishops and Dallas Destiny have indeed reached the Championship Match. So far I’m 8/8 in predicting which teams will move on in the playoffs, and so today marks my chance at a perfect 9/9. Therefore I’m taking this pick very seriously.
There is one major change in St. Louis’s lineup that could cause a shift in the momentum. St. Louis is playing GM Varzuhan Akobian in this match, in place of GM Le Quang Liem, the top Vietnamese player who has been above 2700 FIDE many times. Any team in the league would love to have Akobian on Board Two, St.Louis included. However it’s impossible to say that it doesn’t slightly increase Dallas’s chances, as Akobian is currently has a FIDE rating almost 50 points below Liem. GM-elect Jeffery Xiong is playing amazingly once again, and it will definitely help his chances to play someone 50 points lower rated, even if that player is still unbelievably strong. A mathematical way of thinking about it is it could turn a 40% chance into a 45% chance. That 5% matters a lot when you have two teams that are so strong.
St. Louis is the obvious favorite on Board One, as Wesley So has the White pieces against Conrad Holt.
Xiong plays so unbelievably well in the league that I’m going to say that he is no more than a slight underdog, especially since he has the White pieces. Xiong currently has a three game winning streak, with two of those wins coming against GMs. However it’s impossible to forget that Akobian led the Seattle Sluggers to their incredible Championship run in 2012. Akobian has been around a long time and is still improving. This is going to be an unbelievable match up.
On Board Three I guess I will give a very small nod to Dallas. Larson is strong and has the White pieces, but Guadalupe has played great in 2014, and despite faltering last week he is still at 7.5/10 for the season.
On Board Four you have to say that Dallas is the clear favorite. Ramchandran has the White pieces, has played very well all season, including two wins in the playoffs and has a significant rating edge. His opponent, Spencer Finegold, started off his season with a bang, but he’s struggled a bit lately.
In the blitz playoff, you also have to give the edge to St. Louis, because they have the big guy up top: GM Wesley So. Dallas would certainly have a chance, but you have to be a bit crazy to say that the tiebreaker wouldn’t favor St. Louis.
After looking at all of the evidence, my final conclusion is that despite the very small downgrade in pure rating, St. Louis is still the favorite to win the USCL Championship. It is going to be an unbelievably close match. Either team is very capable of winning in regulation, and I also think either team is very capable of winning in a blitz tiebreak. Conrad Holt and Jeffery Xiong are very sharp blitz players and will not fall easily, even to someone like Wesley So. However St. Louis is the favorite, and therefore they are my pick to be the 2014 U.S Chess League Champions.
Everyone will definitely want to tune into the Internet Chess Club to watch what will be the culmination of a great season.