As we come upon the final week in the East, the playoff fate for six teams still remains undetermined as all may reach their destiny or be watching from home next week. With these six teams fighting for three precious spots, there are, as a result, a large number of different scenarios that can come about based upon the various results. And to give the viewers, who will be eagerly watching on Wednesday as it all unfolds, an idea of where each team lies exactly, we examine each’s team’s general playoff scenarios.
In parentheses, I also include what each team’s approximate chances of making the postseason are, assuming that all the teams are equally matched so that the chance of each team winning a given match is 37% with the chance of a drawn match being 26% (obviously this is not actually the case for many reasons, but this is the best way to get a reasonable estimation)
Philadelphia Inventors (100%):
1st Place: Will take first with a win or draw or a Manhattan draw or loss
2nd Place: Will take second with a loss and a Manhattan win
Manhattan Applesauce (99%):
1st Place: Will take first with a win and Philadelphia loss
2nd Place: Under any of these scenarios:
(a) A win and a Philadelphia non-loss
(b) A draw and New York failing to win at least 3.5 - 0.5
(c) A loss which is at worst a 3-1 loss, and New York failing to win against New Jersey
Miss playoffs: Will only happen should they lose 4-0 to Connecticut, Baltimore beat Boston 4-0, and the New York vs New Jersey match finish with a result other than New Jersey winning 3-1 or 2.5-1.5
In all scenarios not listed above, Manhattan will finish in 3rd or 4th place.
New York Knights (69%):
With a win: Will take second with a Manhattan loss or with a Manhattan draw if New York’s victory is either 4-0 or 3.5-0.5. A win not falling under either of these cases will give them third.
With a draw: Will take third regardless of other matches.
With a loss: Will take fourth or miss the playoffs. If Baltimore does not draw with Boston, then New York will definitely miss in this case. Should Baltimore draw with Boston then New York will take fourth with a Connecticut loss, or should New York’s loss be by a 3-1 or 2.5-1.5 score, then a Connecticut loss or draw will suffice. Else New York will be eliminated.
Connecticut Dreadnoughts (42%):
With a win: Connecticut will clinch a playoff spot with a win.
2nd Place: A 4-0 or 3.5-0.5 win coupled with New York failing to win.
3rd Place: (a) A 4-0 or 3.5-0.5 win and a New York win
(b) A 3-1 win and a New Jersey win
(c) A 2.5-1.5 win and a New Jersey win by any score but 4-0
4th Place: (a) A 3-1 win and New Jersey failing to win
(b) A 2.5-1.5 win with a New York win/draw or a New Jersey 4-0 win
With a draw: Connecticut will qualify for the playoffs (in fourth) with a draw only if Baltimore draws with Boston along with the New York vs New Jersey match not ending 3-1 or 2.5-1.5 in favor of New Jersey. Else they will be eliminated.
With a loss: Connecticut will be eliminated with a loss.
New Jersey Knockouts (39%):
With a win: New Jersey is extremely likely to clinch a playoff spot with a win.
3rd Place: (a) A 4-0 win coupled with any result other than Connecticut winning 3-1 against Manhattan
(b) Any win together with Connecticut not winning against Manhattan and Baltimore not winning by a
larger margin than which New Jersey does
Miss playoffs: If Connecticut defeats Manhattan along with Baltimore winning by a larger margin than which New
Jersey does, then New Jersey will not qualify for the postseason
4th Place: New Jersey will finish fourth with a win in all other scenarios
With a draw: New Jersey can only qualify for the playoffs (in fourth) with a draw if Baltimore also draws with Boston, and Connecticut loses to Manhattan.
With a loss: New Jersey will be eliminated with a loss.
Baltimore Kingfishers (28%):
With a win: In this case, Baltimore’s fate rests largely on Connecticut. If Connecticut defeats Manhattan, then Baltimore can make it if either of these two things happens:
(a) Connecticut wins 4-0 or 2.5-1.5 with Baltimore winning 4-0
(b) New Jersey defeats New York by a smaller margin than which Baltimore wins by
If Connecticut does not win, then Baltimore is in for certain with a win (most likely fourth, only moving to third if again New Jersey wins by a smaller margin than they do).
With a draw: Baltimore can only qualify for the playoffs (in fourth) with a draw if New York beats New Jersey, and Connecticut loses to Manhattan.
With a loss: Baltimore will be eliminated with a loss.
Boston Blitz (23%):
Boston will qualify for the playoffs (in fourth) with a win along with Connecticut failing to win against Manhattan. Otherwise Boston will be eliminated.
New England Nor’easters (0%):
New England has been eliminated from postseason contention.