The most exciting week of the USCL season is almost upon us. Any team that gets past this week is in great position to win the USCL Championship. Why is this so? Because after this week there are no more draw odds. It doesn’t matter if you are the 8th seed, you will always be given the chance at a blitz tiebreaker from the Semifinals onward.
However this week there are three teams that must win to advance, and quite honestly I think that all three of them have serious chances to do it.
Miami vs Manhattan
Last year’s Champions start off as underdogs vs the Manhattan Applesauce, as the Sharks will be eliminated on a draw. Miami couldn’t have asked for a better situation than this, as Julio Becerra is being paired down and has a solid chance to put Miami up 1-0. Then on Board Two, they have another favorable matchup, as Renier Gonzalez faces Farai Mandizha. Last year Renier went 3-0 in the playoffs and was one of the main reasons the Sharks won their first USCL Championship.
On Board Three Federico Gonzalez has performed well this year, scoring 1.5/3 against tough competition. The only board where Miami is at a disadvantage is on Board Four, where Manhattan’s Levy Rozman has been tearing it up all season long. I think objectively the Applesauce are still a small favorite to advance … maybe something like 55%. I think that if there was no draw odds in this match, that Miami has the better team. The problem with draw odds is there is no room for error, and if Farai Mandizha plays one of his brilliant attacking games, the Sharks can pretty much say goodbye to a repeat. However, in order to avoid picking all the favorites, I’m going to keep riding last year’s champions. I think they have put forward their best lineup all year, and they aren’t ready to give up their place as the champs just yet.
One important point is that whoever gets out of this matchup should hope that St. Louis somehow loses, because the Arch Bishops are going to be a nightmare for both of these teams in the Semifinals.
Miami 2.5 - 1.5
St. Louis vs New Jersey
New Jersey is going to be a tough out for St. Louis. Why is that? On Board Three we have Alex Katz, who shines in a situation like this. His tactical style works well in must win games, and because New Jersey needs 2.5/4 and there are two 2700s on Boards One and Two for St. Louis, this is a must win for him. On Board Four a lot of pressure is on the young Ethan Klein. However Ethan is young, talented and has been playing well lately, and in my opinion also is very likely to need a win. The problem is that Matt Larson and Spencer Finegold are no slouches. Also it’s very likely that St. Louis will get at least 1.5/2 on the top two boards.
I think that St. Louis definitely faces some danger, and will lose somewhere around 20-25% of the time, but my prediction is
St. Louis 3 - 1
Rio Grande vs New York
Rio Grande has put forward their best lineup but I think that this is a very tough matchup for them. I would say that Board One is a toss up, since Kamsky is Black against the also very strong Kovalayov. Rio Grande is a favorite on Board Two, while New York is a huge favorite on Board Three, and a favorite on Board Four. However I would like to disagree with one of Alex Katz’s comments from his predictions last week.
I do not believe that New York is so great in the tiebreaker as I think St. Louis, and even Dallas, could pose a lot of trouble in a blitz tiebreaker. (Conrad Holt is an incredibly strong blitz player, and the young Jeffery Xiong is certainly very dangerous as well). Rio Grande falls into the same category. I think that if they can survive and make this match a 2-2 tie, they have two strong GMs that the New York Knights would have to get through. New York definitely wants to do all they can to win this match in regulation, because that’s where they have the clear advantage. I give New York a 63% chance to advance.
New York 2.5 - 1.5
Dallas vs San Francisco
This match is simple….newly annointed IM, Yian Liou, has to do anything in his power to avoid losing to Jeffery Xiong. This won’t be an easy task, but if he can find a way to do it, I think the Mechanics have very serious chances to upset the powerful Dallas Destiny. Daniel Naroditsky has simply been playing fantastic chess lately. Meanwhile the Mechanics have been lights out on Boards Three and Four. The problem with this formula is that Conrad Holt, and Dallas’s bottom two boards have been just as good. If you look at it objectively, you could say that the matchups are even on Boards One, Three, and Four, but Dallas has the edge on Board Two, due to Xiong’s higher rating and ridiculous strong league play, and they advance on a draw. I’ll give Dallas a 70% chance to advance.
Dallas 2.5 - 1.5